Оригинал взят у beresin в Еврокомиссия: украинский безвиз, вероятно, уменьшит число беженцев из Украины.
Напомню, отсутствие существеные рисков безопасности и нелегальной миграции - условие отмены виз, прописанное в ПДВЛ (например, косоварам из-за их наличия сейчас безвиз временно отложили). Начиная с перехода Украины к выполнению второй фазы Плана действий летом 2014 года, эти риски анализируются в специальных документах Еврокомиссии - т.н. COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENTS, которые являются приложениями к мониторингам (Progress Report'ам). И если в прошлом таком документе (в мае 2015 года) Еврокомиссия констатировала наличие очень существенных миграционных угроз, искходящих от Украины, то сейчас ситуация заметно поменялась.
4.1. Key possible impacts on migration trends
a) Visa liberalisation for Ukraine will reduce the barriers and costs associated with travelling to the EU, which will lead to changes in the type of smuggling services needed, from facilitation of illegal entry to attempting legalisation of stay after overstaying.
b) Given the current economic situation in Ukraine, EU Member States currently are an attractive option for labour migrants from Ukraine. Likewise, the demand for residency and domestic work will likely increase.
c) With 16% of the population aged under 15 in 2013, Ukraine will have to provide inclusive economic opportunities in the near future to avoid large emigration flows.
d) Visa liberalisation could be abused to apply for asylum in EU Member states by Ukrainian nationals as a way to legalise their overstay.
e) As the situation in the eastern Ukraine remains unstable, EU Member States will remain an option for asylum seekers. Rapid increases of asylum applications at the common borders cannot be ruled out in terms of new important armed conflict.
f) The challenges of IDPs in a long term perspective may also result in an increased flow of Ukrainians for which emigration to the EU might be the best option in the near future.
То сейчас количество претензий убавилось, а почти по всем оставшимся отмечается, что ничего страшного в общем-то особо и нет:
4.1. Key possible impacts on migration trends
a) Ukrainians nationals are widespread across Europe, with roughly 850 000 nationals legally residing in the EU in 2013. The most recent trends show a growing interest for migration towards the EU. Regular passenger and circular migration flows between the EU and Ukraine will increase significantly in the coming years due to rising regional and global mobility. Visa liberalisation for Ukraine will reduce the barriers to travel to the EU and will encourage regular temporary and circular migration, strengthening people-to-people contacts.
b) Given the current economic situation in Ukraine, the demand for residence in EU Member States will remain robust and EU will continue to be attractive for Ukrainian would-be labour migrants.
c) Ukrainian nationals tend to use legal travel channels. The level of irregular migration is not high compared with the number of valid permits, and almost half of all cases were identified when exiting the EU's external air and land borders i.e. voluntarily returning home. Still, the number of irregular migrants being detected is increasing, Ukrainian nationals' most likely modus operandi will continue to be the abuse of legal forms of entry to the EU and Schengen area, although a visa-free regime could limit this trend. However, the successful implementation of local border traffic agreements with EU Member States are already enabling many Ukrainian citizens to travel visa-free and as such can be seen as a test run for visa liberalisation.
d) The number of asylum applications from Ukraine will probably decrease as a result of visa liberalisation as asylum will no longer be seen as one of the best ways of entering EU Member States and the Schengen area. On the other hand, it is possible that a visa-free regime could increase the number of asylum applicants because it would open up legal travel channels and make access to the asylum procedure easier. Applying for asylum could also be used as a means of legalising overstays and avoiding being sent home.
e) As long as the situation in eastern Ukraine remains unstable, the EU Member States and the Schengen area will remain an option for asylum seekers. Rapid increases of asylum applications at the EU's borders with Ukraine cannot be ruled out if there is an important escalation of the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
f) Population movements will continue to be affected by the ongoing crisis in eastern Ukraine. The challenges facing IDPs might also result in an increased flow of Ukrainians emigrating to the EU or seeking asylum there. Ukraine is actively cooperating with international organisations to manage the assistance for IDPs.
В общем, кажется beresin всё начал понимать. Хорошо, раз так.